Trump: will his lead last?

That is the million dollar question that every national political analyst.  Suffice it to say Trump has defied every traditional rubric when it comes to things you aren't suppose to do. But he has overcome that by being the ultimate outsider and speaking frankly. Part of this has to do with personality.  But also remember there have been many candidates who were leading at this point but did not eventually get the nomination. The other problem Trump was already known nationally before he became a candidate. So what does that mean? It means potentially that Trump has more downside than upside at this point. The other issue is that how serious is the support? That is important because unlike the New Hampshire primary where you just simply vote the Iowa caucuses requires voters to debate issues and resolutions. Do the have 2-3 hours to commit? 

Of course that being said as in life anything is possible. Would Perot won had he stayed in the race in 1992?  McCain's campaign was considered all but dead in the summer of 2007 but he ultimately became the nominee in 2008. Howard Dean lead until his "scream" during the Iowa caucus that ultimate led the Democratic Party to choose John Kerry.