Sunday, January 17, 2016

Trump rewrites campaign rules.

Many pundits had Trump wrong in terms of his early viability. After many provocative comments that would have ended most traditional campaigns. But it's it's clear that Trump has ran a very untraditional campaign in part because he can.  Traditionally campaigns have had to run paid media in order to gain free media.  This has largely been untrue for Trump.
 Trump has such a media attraction that the media can't get enough enough of him despite his outrageous remarks.  So why am I stating the obvious?
Because ultimately the polls must translate into votes. Polls are not always accurate and national polls don't really matter because even though this is a federal election it is determined state by state.  Also many leading candidates running up to the primaries and caucuses did not ultimately get the nomination. 
For example in England and Israel the poll numbers ultimately did not bear out. Why? Because registered or likely voters don't always vote. 

No comments: