GOP debate without Trump?

Cruz gets blasted twice: Palin and Branstad

Ted Cruz took a beating this week. First as a candidate from the tea party movement Sarah Palin endorses Trump for his campaign.  Then the IA governor slams Cruz after Cruz accuses the IA governor as being part of the Washington cartel as he is often quoted to even his fellow republicans. 

Trump rewrites campaign rules.

Many pundits had Trump wrong in terms of his early viability. After many provocative comments that would have ended most traditional campaigns. But it's it's clear that Trump has ran a very untraditional campaign in part because he can.  Traditionally campaigns have had to run paid media in order to gain free media.  This has largely been untrue for Trump.

 Trump has such a media attraction that the media can't get enough enough of him despite his outrageous remarks.  So why am I stating the obvious?

Because ultimately the polls must translate into votes. Polls are not always accurate and national polls don't really matter because even though this is a federal election it is determined state by state.  Also many leading candidates running up to the primaries and caucuses did not ultimately get the nomination. 

For example in England and Israel the poll numbers ultimately did not bear out. Why? Because registered or likely voters don't always vote. 

Trump: will his lead last?

That is the million dollar question that every national political analyst.  Suffice it to say Trump has defied every traditional rubric when it comes to things you aren't suppose to do. But he has overcome that by being the ultimate outsider and speaking frankly. Part of this has to do with personality.  But also remember there have been many candidates who were leading at this point but did not eventually get the nomination. The other problem Trump was already known nationally before he became a candidate. So what does that mean? It means potentially that Trump has more downside than upside at this point. The other issue is that how serious is the support? That is important because unlike the New Hampshire primary where you just simply vote the Iowa caucuses requires voters to debate issues and resolutions. Do the have 2-3 hours to commit? 

Of course that being said as in life anything is possible. Would Perot won had he stayed in the race in 1992?  McCain's campaign was considered all but dead in the summer of 2007 but he ultimately became the nominee in 2008. Howard Dean lead until his "scream" during the Iowa caucus that ultimate led the Democratic Party to choose John Kerry.

GOP candidates scramble for top 10 in Fox News debate

Republican candidates are scrambling to reach the threshold to be in the top 10 in which there are currently 16 candidates. Fox News will take a national average on August 4th. 

Then there were 2

Senator Rand Paul announced this week his intention to run for president. Paul has touted his familiar anti government and pro liberty theme. His only main weakness policy wise is his stand on defense. That is that we should not be involved in foreign affairs which most republicans do not subscribe to. 

GOP introduces state transportation bill